IWT violations add to flood risks in Pakistan amid glaciers melt

Under the shade of a Shisham tree at Khushal Garh, 55-year-old farmer Salahuddin Khan watches the slow rise of water in River Indus with a familiar sense of trepidation amid Indus Water Treaty’s repeated violations by India since its signing in 1960

KOHAT, (APP - UrduPoint / Pakistan Point News - 23rd Apr, 2026) Under the shade of a Shisham tree at Khushal Garh, 55-year-old farmer Salahuddin Khan watches the slow rise of water in River Indus with a familiar sense of trepidation amid Indus Water Treaty’s repeated violations by India since its signing in 1960.

While watching River Sindh at Khushal Garh bridge in Kohat, Salahuddin’s scars of the devastating 2022 floods have not yet faded due to possible surge of water owing to fast melting of glaciers, and release of floodwater by India following IWT violations.

His guava and watermelon orchards that were once a reliable source of income were battered by surging waters in 2022 floods, inflicting heavy financial and economic losses to growers. Now, as temperatures climb in summer and glaciers melt faster in the north, he fears history may repeat itself.

The progressive farmer recalls a different past while removing the precipitation of face with white handkerchief. “When I was a child and came here along with my father, the river flowed normally,” he says. “Now the water level is higher and more erratic.”

For Salahuddin and his community, the stakes are immediate and personal. “This year, my worries have doubled,” Salahuddin, carrying a hove on right shoulder, says, pausing between irrigating his watermelon crop.

“We grow guava, melons, barley, peaches, and apricots,” he says. “The mighty river is rising earlier. The floods come without warning. One sudden flood can destroy everything.”

For farmers like him, climate change is no longer an abstract concept. It is visible in the shifting rhythm of rivers, especially of IWT violations, the shortening winters, and unpredictability of water flows.

Across Pakistan’s northern areas from Gilgit-Baltistan to Chitral and Azad Kashmir to Swat, thousands of glaciers are melting at accelerating rates due to global warming.

Experts warn that this is increasing both the frequency and intensity of summer floods, particularly in the Indus Basin.

Gulzar Rehman, a former Conservator of Forests, says the impact of climate change is already visible in Pakistan. “Mountain streams now flow even in winter in northern KP and Gilgit Baltistan, something we never saw before,” he explains. “Temperatures in valleys such as Kalam and Chitral that once stayed below 30°C are now crossing 40°C.”

He said the negative consequences of IWT violations extend far beyond rising rivers. Rapid glacier melt is also forming unstable glacial lakes, which can burst without warning, sending destructive floods downstream.

Agriculture remains the backbone of livelihoods across much of Pakistan, and any disruption in water flow whether excess or shortage can trigger cascading losses such as ruined crops, dead livestock, and mounting debt.

Experts estimate that water disruptions could affect up to 40% of key crops like wheat and rice, threatening food security for millions if IWT violations continued.

Compounding climate risks are growing concerns over water management in the region, particularly related to the Indus Waters Treaty.

Signed in 1960 with the World Bank as guarantor, the treaty governs the sharing of the Indus River system between Pakistan and India and remained intact despite four wars between the two countries.

Pakistani experts argue that non-sharing of data about water level in western rivers by India, and changes in upstream water flows are increasing uncertainty of floods in downstream districts of Pakistan.

Professor Dr. Zilakat Malik, former chairman economic department at university of Peshawar, points to unusually low flows in the Chenab River in late 2025 after IWT was held in abeyance by India in April last year.

“Water levels dropped far below normal at River Chanab last year amid IWT violations by the Hinduvata Modi regime,” he says. “Such fluctuations can severely impact agriculture, fisheries, fruits orchards and livestock in Pakistan.”

Satellite observations, he adds, suggested upstream water retention by India following IWT violations by India, raising concerns about transparency and coordination.

The Indus Basin supports nearly 300 million people and powers critical infrastructure, including major dams like Tarbela Dam and Mangla Dam.

These systems rely on consistent river flows. Any disruption whether from climate change or geopolitical tensions can ripple across irrigation networks, energy production, and daily life in Pakistan.

“Water is not just a resource here,” says Dr. Ejaz Khan, an international relations expert at University of Peshawar. “It is the foundation of food security, energy, and food stability.”

The experts said that rapid glacier melt increases flood risks in summer, while erratic flows can lead to shortages during critical growing periods. Experts also warn of worsening droughts, desertification, and water pollution if IWT violations continue, saying it may lead to starvation and hunger in Pakistan.

For farmers like Salahuddin, these overlapping threats are deeply unsettling and factors of uncertainty.“We don’t know what to expect anymore,” he says quietly. “Flood or drought— either way, we become victims of IWT violations.”

Analysts and legal experts stress that international cooperation is essential to managing shared water resources and preventing water and food crises in Pakistan.

They argue that agreements like the Indus Waters Treaty must be upheld and strengthened through transparency, data sharing, and dialogue. Great responsibility rest on the World Bank being guarantor of IWT to force the Indian Govt to reverse its illegal decision.

He said Modi Govt went against World Bank guarantee and international conventions by holding the historic IWT in abeyance in April last year.

Without coordinated action, the burden will continue to fall on communities like Salahuddin’s — those living closest to the river, and most vulnerable to its changing course.

As the sun sets over his watermelon and guava fields in Kohat, Salahuddin returns to work, tending crops that depend on a river he no longer trusts.

“The Indus water gives us life,” he says. “But now, it also brings fear of floods due to IWT violations.”

APP/fam/