IMF maintains Pakistan growth forecast at 3.6% amid global economic slowdown

For Pakistan, IMF expects a gradual recovery in economic activity, but it notes that growth will remain limited due to structural challenges and external risks

ISLAMABAD: (UrduPoint/UrduPoint / Pakistan Point News-April 15^th, 2026) The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has kept Pakistan’s economic growth projection unchanged at 3.6% for the fiscal year 2025-26, below the government’s target of 4.2%.

In its latest World Economic Outlook report, the IMF said the global economy is facing pressure due to ongoing conflict in the middle East. As a result, global growth has been revised down to 3.4%, mainly because of disruptions in energy supplies and financial markets.

For Pakistan, the IMF expects a gradual recovery in economic activity, but it noted that growth will remain limited due to structural challenges and external risks.

Inflation in Pakistan is projected to average 7.2% during the current fiscal year and is expected to rise further to 8.4% in 2026-27. This is significantly higher than the 4.5% recorded in the previous fiscal year, indicating renewed price pressures.

On the labour market side, unemployment is expected to improve slightly, declining from 7.

1% to 6.9% this year and further easing to 6.5% next year.

The IMF also projected that Pakistan’s current account deficit will remain contained at 0.4% of GDP in the current fiscal year, before rising to 0.9% in the next year.

Globally, the IMF warned that economic growth could slow further if geopolitical tensions continue or expand. It projected world growth at 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027.

The report highlighted major risks to the outlook, including prolonged conflict, rising geopolitical fragmentation, financial market volatility, and high public debt levels. It also noted that stronger-than-expected gains from artificial intelligence or easing trade tensions could improve global growth.

The IMF stressed the need for strong policy frameworks, improved resilience, and international cooperation to manage risks and support economic stability in an increasingly uncertain global environment.