Water Politics & Food Security: Pakistan’s farms under threat due to IWT violation by India

The Indus Waters Treaty stood as one of the most significant international water agreements in South Asia. Signed in 1960 between Pakistan and India, the treaty was brokered and guaranteed by the World Bank to regulate the use and distribution of river waters between the two countries

MULTAN, (UrduPoint / Pakistan Point News - 12th Mar, 2026) The Indus Waters Treaty stood as one of the most significant international water agreements in South Asia. Signed in 1960 between Pakistan and India, the treaty was brokered and guaranteed by the World Bank to regulate the use and distribution of river waters between the two countries.

At first glance, the agreement appeared to be merely a technical framework for water sharing. In reality, however, it represented a lifeline for Pakistan’s agriculture and water security. Pakistan remained fundamentally an agrarian economy, and nearly 90 percent of its agricultural activities depended on the river system of the Indus River and its major tributaries, particularly the River Jhelum and River Chenab. For this reason, the treaty was widely regarded as the backbone of Pakistan’s water sustainability.

According to Dr. Yusuf Zafar (Tamgha-e-Imtiaz), former chairman of the Pakistan Agricultural Research Council and former vice president of the Pakistan Central Cotton Committee, most of the water flowing through Pakistan’s river system originated from glaciers and snow reserves located in the Himalayas, Karakoram, and Hindu Kush mountain ranges. As glaciers melted during warmer months, water traveled through the Indus basin and reached Pakistan’s vast irrigation network, ultimately irrigating millions of acres of farmland, Yusuf added.

Recent scientific observations, however, revealed alarming trends. Between 2000 and 2021, glacier volumes in these regions declined by nearly 13 percent due to climate change. At a time when glacial reserves were already shrinking and water flows were becoming increasingly uncertain, any unilateral move disrupting established water-sharing arrangements could have serious consequences for Pakistan’s agricultural calendar, he maintained.

In this context, India’s unilateral suspension of treaty obligations in April 2025 raised deep concerns among agricultural experts. Even a small reduction in water supply significantly affected crop growth and productivity. As the world moved closer to what experts described as a phase of “water bankruptcy,” political interference in the natural flow of the western rivers — the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab — directly threatened Pakistan’s food security.

Dr. Yusuf Zafar further remarked that water agreements in the modern era could no longer be viewed merely as mechanisms for dividing water quantities. Instead, they had to be understood as frameworks for protecting entire ecological systems. Water flows sustained not only agriculture but also environmental balance, groundwater recharge, and long-term sustainability.

He added that Pakistan operated one of the largest irrigation systems in the world, relying on roughly 140 million acre-feet of water annually. This vast network supported both major cropping seasons — Rabi and Kharif — enabling farmers to cultivate key crops such as wheat, rice, cotton, and sugarcane.

If the Indus Waters Treaty were violated or the natural flow of western rivers disrupted, the consequences would extend far beyond a diplomatic dispute. The effects would directly impact Pakistan’s agricultural economy, food production, and rural livelihoods.

Recent developments already offered a glimpse of the potential damage. Last year, at the beginning of the Kharif season in Sindh, a shortage of irrigation water delayed early cotton sowing across nearly 150,000 acres. The delay not only reduced yields but also affected the quality of the crop.

According to agricultural research, water shortages during the early growth stage of crops reduced final yields by as much as 30 to 40 percent. If river flows became unpredictable — especially during the critical Kharif sowing period — the cultivation schedules of vital cash crops such as cotton and rice could face serious disruption.

Similarly, during the Rabi season, wheat crops required timely irrigation to achieve optimal growth. Any interruption in water availability therefore jeopardized production in both major cropping seasons.

Another expert, Sajid Mahmood, head of the Technology Transfer Department at the Central Cotton Research Institute Multan, said that Pakistan’s irrigation canals did more than deliver water to crops. They also played a crucial role in recharging underground aquifers. When river flows declined, groundwater levels dropped rapidly, forcing farmers to rely more heavily on tube wells.

Sajid Mahmood explained that increased dependence on tube wells significantly raised the cost of farming. Farmers had to pump water from deeper levels, consuming more electricity or diesel. For small and medium-scale farmers, this rise in production costs often became financially unsustainable.

In addition to water shortages, irregular river flows created another dangerous scenario. If water was held back at one stage and then suddenly released in large volumes, it could trigger flooding. Such sudden floods devastated crops, destroyed rural infrastructure, and damaged millions of acres of farmland.

On the other hand, reduced river flows deprived agricultural land of nutrient-rich silt carried by rivers. This natural sediment played a vital role in maintaining soil fertility. Without it, the long-term productivity of farmland declined.

Beyond agriculture, water scarcity also emerged as a national security issue.

Sajid added that water scarcity was not merely an agricultural problem. Its impact extended across multiple dimensions of national stability, including food security, water security, public health, and economic resilience.

If agricultural production declined, the country could face food shortages, rising inflation, and increased reliance on imports. At the same time, millions of people in rural areas who depended on farming and related sectors for their livelihoods could face severe economic hardship.

Pakistan’s export economy also maintained strong links with agriculture, particularly through the textile sector. Cotton — one of the country’s major crops — served as the primary raw material for textile production. Any decline in cotton output due to water shortages therefore affected industrial activity, export revenues, and the broader national economy.

In this sense, water was not simply a natural resource. It was a strategic asset that underpinned Pakistan’s agricultural survival and economic stability.

Describing the way forward, Dr. Yusuf Zafar and Sajid Mahmood stressed that the Indus Waters Treaty must be safeguarded not merely as a diplomatic agreement but as a critical pillar of Pakistan’s long-term sustainability.

Pakistan had to pursue effective diplomatic and legal measures to protect its water rights and raise the issue at international forums with strong scientific and technical evidence. At the same time, domestic reforms remained equally important.

These included improving water management, constructing new reservoirs and storage facilities, modernizing irrigation systems, and promoting advanced agricultural technologies that used water more efficiently.

Both experts concluded that water security and agricultural security were inseparable. If water resources remained protected, Pakistan’s agriculture could thrive. And if agriculture remained strong, the nation’s economic and food security would remain secure.

Safeguarding water was not just about managing a resource; it was about protecting the future of Pakistan itself, they remarked.