Pakistan power generation plunges 9.6% in April amid RLNG shortages, austerity measures

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s power generation fell sharply in April, dropping 9.6% year-over-year to 9,499 gigawatt-hours, as government-led austerity, fuel supply disruptions and rising distributed generation suppressed demand, official data showed.

The decline came despite lower electricity tariffs, incentive packages for industrial and agricultural users, and a 6.5% year-over-year rise in large-scale manufacturing in the first nine months of the fiscal year, according to figures released Tuesday.

Generation for the 10 months ending April 2026 totaled 102,630 GWh, a 2% increase from the same period a year earlier. On a month-to-month basis, generation rose 6.3%, reflecting seasonal factors.

The country’s power output remained below reference levels set by the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority. Analysts said the shortfall is likely to result in higher quarterly tariff adjustments going forward.

Adjusted fuel costs in April stood at 9.97 Pakistani rupees per kilowatt-hour, above NEPRA’s reference cost of 8.25 rupees per kilowatt-hour.

In response, distribution companies have requested a positive fuel cost adjustment of 1.73 rupees per kilowatt-hour for April, driven by a greater reliance on furnace oil and high-speed diesel amid elevated global oil prices.

Furnace oil-based generation surged sixfold year-over-year to 486 GWh due to disruptions in re-gasified liquefied natural gas supplies. High-speed diesel plants were dispatched for the first time since January 2024, though they contributed just 0.5% of the generation mix.

RLNG-based generation plummeted 82.4% to 380 GWh as no cargoes were imported during the month compared with six scheduled, following supply disruptions tied to the U.S.-Iran conflict.

Hydel generation fell 9.8% to 2,079 GWh, driven by lower output from WAPDA power plants. Nuclear generation rose 11.4% to 2,097 GWh, boosted by higher output from the K-3 plant. Imported coal generation more than doubled to 1,343 GWh, helping compensate for reduced RLNG and hydel share.

NEPRA projects power demand growth of 1% in calendar year 2026. However, analysts warn that prolonged RLNG disruptions from the U.S.-Iran conflict could drive up fuel cost adjustments and tariffs or trigger load shedding, potentially dampening demand further.