NDMA Issues Warning Over Severe Monsoon Due to Possible Super El Niño

The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) has warned of an unusually intense monsoon season in 2026, citing forecasts of a possible El Niño event that could disrupt rainfall patterns across Pakistan

According to Zahra Hassan, who is an NDMA official, El Niño occurs when sea temperature rises by 0.8°C or more, and Super El Niño occurs when the sea temperature rises over 2°C. She stated that the risk of there being a Super El Niño this year’s monsoon season is quite high.

She said that, under different El Niño conditions, Balochistan could see above normal amounts of precipitation, while also being at risk for flash flooding in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Azad Kashmir. Furthermore, due to GLOF’s, it is also possible that there will be flooding from lakes that occur as glaciers melt in Gilgit-Baltistan. Additionally, she added that not only are sea temperatures expected to rise, but land temperatures will also most likely do the same.

The NDMA has issued a detailed advisory to provincial authorities, outlining preparedness measures, including emergency response planning, supply management, and improved coordination mechanisms.

Flood risks are expected to increase, particularly in the Indus River, which officials consider more vulnerable this season compared to the Ravi River, Sutlej River, and Chenab River.

Officials said contingency plans are being reviewed to ensure a swift and effective response to potential flooding and other weather-related emergencies.