IWT violations put Pakistan at heightened flood risk during monsoon: Experts

Water and forestry experts here on Tuesday warned that India's continued suspension of the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) could significantly increase Pakistan's vulnerability to flooding during monsoon season, with potentially devastating consequences for agriculture, infrastructure, and millions of people living along the country's major river systems

PESHAWAR, (APP - UrduPoint / Pakistan Point News - 21st Jul, 2026) Water and forestry experts here on Tuesday warned that India's continued suspension of the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) could significantly increase Pakistan's vulnerability to flooding during monsoon season, with potentially devastating consequences for agriculture, infrastructure, and millions of people living along the country's major river systems.

Speaking to APP, water expert and former Forest Chief Dr. Niaz Ali said that any uncoordinated or excessive release of water from reservoirs in Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir during periods of intense rainfall could substantially increase flood risks downstream in Pakistan.

"During the monsoon, heavy rainfall places extraordinary pressure on dams and reservoirs especially located upstream. If excessive volumes of water are released without timely coordination and information-sharing amid violations of Indus Waters Treaty by India, downstream areas in Pakistan could face severe flooding and millions of people are likely to be affected and displaced," Dr. Niaz Ali feared.

He reiterated that the Chenab and Jhelum rivers, which originate upstream before flowing into Pakistan, were particularly sensitive during the monsoon season.

According to him, sudden surges in rivers flows could inundate low-lying districts in Punjab and Sindh, damaging standing crops, livestock, irrigation infrastructure, roads, bridges, and residential areas.

"The consequences of major flooding extend beyond immediate physical destruction. It can disrupt agricultural production, displace communities, damage public infrastructure, and create serious food security challenges for affected populations in Pakistan," said Dr Salimur Rehman, former Chairman Environmental Science Department at University of Peshawar.

Dr. Salim described the IWT as a vital agreement that has regulated water-sharing between Pakistan and India for more than six decades despite periods of political tension and armed conflict.

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"The treaty is not merely a bilateral agreement; it is the backbone of water security for millions of people. It has survived wars and prolonged diplomatic crises because both countries recognized the importance of ensuring uninterrupted water cooperation," he said.

Referring to recent legal developments, Dr. Niaz Ali maintained that India could not unilaterally place the treaty in abeyance.

He said the recent important ruling by the International Court of Arbitration reaffirmed the continuing validity of the historic treaty and reinforced the principle that neither party could suspend it unilaterally.

"The Court of Arbitration's judgment has strengthened the legal position of Pakistan that the treaty remains in force. It underscored that disputes should be resolved through the mechanisms provided under the historic treaty rather than through unilateral illegal actions," he remarked.

He urged the international community, particularly the World Bank, which facilitated the signing of the treaty in 1960, to play an active role in preserving the agreement before it put the region peace in jeopardy.

"The World Bank has a historic responsibility as the treaty's guarantor. The restoration of full implementation of the treaty is important not only for regional water security but also for lasting peace, stability, and economic prosperity in South Asia," he said.

Environmental experts have long stressed that effective flood management required advance hydrological data sharing, coordinated reservoir operations, and continuous communication between upstream and downstream countries, particularly during the monsoon season when river flows could rise dramatically within a short period.

They emphasized that uninterrupted implementation of the treaty remained essential for strengthening disaster preparedness, protecting vulnerable communities, and reducing the risks associated with increasingly unpredictable weather patterns linked to climate change in the region.