Budget blues

THE budget is upon us. A day after this piece appears in the paper, it will be presented in parliament, we were told in a tweet by a government official. This, however, does not mean the two parties — the PPP and PML-N — have agreed on all matters financial. The meetings continue as they try and reach an agreement on what the provinces will contribute to the federation, other than the committed surpluses, which have become the norm for some years.

Wagging tongues in Islamabad speak about many ideas and ‘solutions’ from changing the formula of the divisible pool and shifting the BISP to the provinces to getting the provincial governments to pay for interior ministry expenses. But most talking heads agree there is now little time to change the NFC via a constitutional amendment and the decisions have to be made through other means. So a ‘consensus’, hybrid style, is to be brought about.

As a result, meetings continue between the PPP and the N. That Ishaq Dar, the firefighter who is always sent out to soothe friends, has been part of the team, reflects that this is an issue the N is taking seriously. It is unclear if the matter has already been resolved or still requires thrashing out but thrashed out it will be; and we can also be equally certain the PPP will ask for and get a pound of flesh in return.

Everyone, it seems, has suddenly realised the poor state of the economy.

But this is just one chapter of the consensus building. Vlogs, tweets, gossip and ‘zaraye’ (sources) insist that a 28th amendment is still needed for big-ticket reform, which might include local governments, changes to the provincial status of areas such as Karachi and Gwadar, and so on. Whether this is to simply scare the governing parties into compromising on the financial issues or there is indeed some seriousness behind some of these initiatives is unclear. Perhaps this will become clear once the budget dust settles.

There is little doubt, though, that the powerful ones are now less focused on diplomacy and world peace, and are paying attention to mundane issues such as the economy and politics. The interior minister has been given the job of taking messages back and forth to neighbours and friends while the foreign minister is now sitting put and running meetings with allies.

But as I said there are rumours galore. And one of them, once again, is about a possible reshuffle in the cabinet. This is lent credence by the discussion and debate on the state of the economy and the performance of the government. All the gleeful talk about foreign policy successes has been put aside and replaced by questions on taxes, the government’s economic track record, and so on.

This criticism is not just coming from those who whine all the time (such as myself) but also those who happen to have a better sense of the thinking in the power corridors. Everyone, it seems, has suddenly realised the poor state of the economy.

And for many, this means it’s open season on the finance minister, whose departure is being predicted once again (along with others).

To be honest, the finance minister gets more than his fair share of criticism because he seems to have been left with no constituency. The PML-N had decided a long time ago that he was not one of their own, despite having supported his initial induction into the cabinet and Senate — and he came from a family known to be close to the party. But the honeymoon period was short. Slowly and steadily, many of the key committees were handed over to Ishaq Dar. Neither were the Noonies all that supportive of him in private.

By now, it is less clear if ‘other’, key stakeholders are satisfied with him. But it is worth pointing out that some of the public criticism against him is linked not to Islamabad’s twin but a former finance minister who hasn’t lost his ambitions of running Q block again. What this means is that the real challenge (if the two cities agree) may not be the removal of Muhammad Aurangzeb but about who will replace him.

The IFIs may not want Ishaq Dar to return and one can’t be too sure if the prime minister wants him in the hot seat either. And unconnected souls such as myself don’t know what Pindi thinks of him in terms of Q block. And if he is not acceptable then what are the other options? The ruling party doesn’t have many choices in its senior ranks — which in itself is an indictment of the party once known as being the ‘best’ at governance. There are possible contenders among the young Turks but they will not find it easy to manage the official challenges of this position or the conspiracies that will be hatched around them.

Perhaps the absence of a replacement might win the current finance minister a reprieve but this also means the criticism and the uncertainty will continue.

But along with this come the chances of other changes in the cabinet. However, once again, there is little clarity on the ‘competent’ replacements. Because beyond a certain point focusing on individuals is to evade the reality that the problems are systemic and structural. And while more efficient and competent people can make a difference, they cannot address the absence of political will. For instance, the absence of taxation on real estate or agriculture cannot be pinned on individuals. Or for example, the provision of poor quality internet and phone services.

However, between this budget and the possible cabinet reshuffle, the sense of urgency to deliver for this government (and its backers) will increase. The excuse of ‘stabilising’ an economy on the brink of default will no longer be enough — even among themselves. The people stopped buying into it a long time ago. Can one assume then that the countdown has begun? I wish I knew. n

The writer is a journalist.

Published in Dawn, June 9th, 2026